- ENGLISH BELOW -
Minnkandi fæðingartíðni veldur áhyggjum í ýmsum ríkjum heims, og umræðan um offjölgun sem var áberandi í fyrri tíð hefur snúist upp í andstöðu sína. Búist er við fólksfækkun í flestum ríkjum heims fyrir árið 2100. Hverjir eru orsakavaldar?
Klaus Felix Zimmermann prófessor emeritus í hagfræði við Háskólann í Bonn flytur fyrirlesturinn.
Eftir að Klaus hefur lokið fyrirlestri sínum mun Vilmundur Torfason, BS nemi í hagfræði, segja frá niðurstöðum rannsóknar á frjósemi á Íslandi.
ENGLISH:
The Economics of Fertility Decline
Fertility decline is a matter of concern in numerous countries globally, superseding debates about the population explosion that has dominated the recent historical discourse. By 2100, most countries worldwide are projected to exhibit diminishing populations. What are the causal factors? Economists typically analyze this issue within the framework of the demographic transition approach, Gary Becker’s quantity-quality model, and Dick Easterlin’s hypothesis regarding preference formation and family aspirations developed during childhood. Are these theories obsolete, and can we anticipate a new regime of increasing fertility manifested in an inverse J-curve? Will we observe a regime shift in which the fertility-development curve no longer slopes negatively? Can family policies help to achieve such a political objective? There is little supportive evidence for such an ambition. The presentation will cast doubt on the likelihood of observing more than fluctuating fertility rates around a level below the net reproduction rate in the foreseeable future. While fertility has declined significantly over the last decade in Iceland, this is still primarily attributed to a postponement of parenthood. What are Iceland’s options when faced with global evidence?
Following the presentation of Professor Zimmerman, Vilmundur Torfason will discuss the results of a recent study of fertility in Iceland.
Klaus Felix Zimmermann is an emeritus professor of economics at Bonn University. He is also an honorary professor at Maastricht University, the Free University of Berlin and the Renmin University of China as well as being the president of the Global Labor Organization. His research interests include population, labour, development and migration, with Zimmermann being among the leading economists on the topic of migration.
