India: Between East and West

India is often squeezed between the Global East and the Global West.

In raising pressure on Russia Donald Trump risks collateral damage to a key US partner India. The US president’s so-called secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow ends hostilities with Ukraine within 50 days would undoubtedly hurt China a principal consumer. But as the No. 1 market by some measures India would also be badly hit. NATO chief Mark Rutte urged India among others to “make the phone call to Vladimir Putin” and get the Russian president to the negotiating table warning the threat of penalties was real. True the White House’s tariff vows are increasingly seen as negotiating tactics rather than set in stone and oil markets have largely brushed off Trump’s latest threats. Indian officials say they aren’t too worried and see China as the main US target. New Delhi’s closer ties with Washington should help to insulate it they say.
Yet the spat still underscores how India increasingly finds itself caught in the middle of geopolitical competition. While New Delhi has welcomed US backing in standing up to China — a shared rival — it’s wary of getting drawn too far into Washington’s orbit given its heavy reliance on Chinese imports. India is at the same time engaging in its own fence-mending. Top envoy Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited China this week for a major regional forum where he urged Beijing to avoid “restrictive trade measures and roadblocks.” India’s unwillingness to align too closely with either power puts it in a difficult position as it negotiates what it hopes will be a favorable trade deal with Washington. India is banking on an agreement that allows it to dodge punitive levies and burnish its role as the region’s manufacturing alternative to China. Getting there depends on navigating the complex push and pull of Washington Moscow and Beijing. -Dan Strumpf Bloomberg 16 July 2025

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