SPE Workshop - How Uncertainty Shapes Value

Join us in person for an exciting SPE Workshop diving into the role of uncertainty in shaping value. Whether you're curious or a seasoned pro, this session offers fresh insights and lively discussions on how uncertainty impacts decision-making and outcomes. Don't miss out on a fun and informal chance to connect, learn, and explore new perspectives!

Bio:
Cedric is a co-founder of Tenokonda® a company that provides Risk Management software for businesses. Cedric has over 20 years of experience in the energy industry as a reservoir engineer and data scientist. He has developed industrial software solutions for international E&P companies (Chevron, Total, KOC, CNPC, PEMEX, Ecopetrol). He has spent the most recent years focusing on the improvement of decision making under uncertainty and risk quantification within organizations.

Cedric has worked on industrial scale Carbon Sequestration projects in the US and Canada and on major oilfields around the world. Cedric holds a master's degree in Energy Resources Engineering and a PhD in Energy Science and Engineering from Stanford University.

Cedric will discuss a portfolio-centric uncertainty and associated risks in decision making with specific applications to energy assets.

Workshop topics/outline:

Discussion topics:

1. Identify limitations of Excel-centric economic evaluation approaches for uncertainty quantification
2. Understand decision trees as a foundation and their natural extension to Probabilistic Graphical Models
3. Apply robust scenario modeling techniques to construct decision-supporting portfolios
4. Integrate Bayesian reasoning with Modern Portfolio Theory for energy investment decisions

Outline: Starting at 5:00 PM!

Part 1: The Current Paradigm (40 min)

• Excel-Centric Economic Evaluation
• Decision Trees for Uncertainty

Break (10 min)

Part 2: Uncertainty Quantification and Probabilistic Graphical Models (40 min)

• Where Excel and Decision Trees Fall Short
• PGMs: A Natural Extension

Break (10 min)

Part 3: Scenario Modeling and Portfolio Construction (40 min)

• Robust Scenario Modeling with PGMs
• Portfolio Construction for Decisions

Break (10 min)

Wrap-Up (10 min)

Logistic:

• Bring a laptop
• Sign up for a TKRISK® trial with this

Recommended Pre-Reading

• Moog & Fraces Gasmi (2025). Organizational MIND: Multi-level Integrative Networks for Decisions
• Savage, S.L. (2009). The Flaw of Averages, Chapter 1-3
• Koller & Friedman (2009). Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chapters 1-3
• Baird, B.F. (1989). Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty

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