The Implications of Low Fertility Rates

The fertility rate in the UK – that is the average number of children born to a woman over her life – has fallen to under 1.5. This is well below the level at which the population would remain roughly constant in the absence of substantial net immigration. In the absence of such large net flows of people into the country the population will start to decline and continue to do so unless the fertility rate rises to a little over two. Some people believe that such a state of affairs poses serious economic and social problems. Many believe that the decline in fertility rates to, or in some cases well below, the UK level in many rich countries poses a substantial risk to the European way of life.

Part of the perceived risk is that economic growth will fall and could become negative. There is also believed to be a rising problem of care for the relatively elderly.

In this talk Professor David Miles CBE will consider the scale of the risk, the factors behind the decline in fertility and whether policies to substantially boost fertility are either likely to succeed or if they are even ethical. He will also consider the case for continued large scale migration to offset the effects of a low fertility rate.

The economic and social case that sustained low fertility rates poses severe problems is very far from obvious and he will explore some of its underpinnings. The disadvantages of ever-growing populations are highly relevant to whether one views low fertility rates as a curse or a blessing. He will use evidence from the past and speculate on how different patterns of fertility and net migration will affect the country over the next several decades.

Professor David Miles CBE will also consider philosophical issues connected with population size and whether current generations have obligations to maintain populations.

Who Should Attend?

This event is ideal for anyone interested in the intersection of economics, demography, philosophy, and public policy. Whether you’re an economist, sociologist, ethicist, policymaker, student, or simply someone curious about the implications of declining fertility rates and population trends, this talk offers a thought-provoking exploration of a critical issue. Join us to delve into the challenges, debates, and ethical considerations surrounding population size, migration, and the future of society.

Practical Information

The talk includes a Q&A session and light refreshments can be purchased from the venue’s bar.

Booking is essential. Lit & Phil members: we recommend logging into the website to make booking your free member ticket quicker and easier.

Accessibility Information

The venue is wheelchair accessible with an accessible toilet on the ground floor. Please contact us regarding any specific accessibility requirements you may have by emailing ZXZlbnRzIHwgbWFubGl0cGhpbCAhIGFjICEgdWs=