Reflections on Decision Quality in Mega Projects – SDP Hou Chapter Meeting

OUR GRATITUDE: A special thank you to Shell for hosting this meeting and for supporting the Society of Decision Professionals.

AGENDA (Central Time):

1:00 PM - Arrivals, Security processing, Networking

2:00 PM – Safety/Welcome

2:10 PM – “Reflections on Decision Quality Implementation in Mega Projects through the last decade” | Erik Sorgard, Shell

2:45 PM – Break

3:00 PM – “Framing Chaos” | Paul McNutt, Retired ConocoPhillips

3:45 PM - SDP Local Chapter Announcements

4:00 PM - Close

Abstract:

Deepwater mega projects come with unique challenges, heavily dominated by subsurface uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can only be resolved with dynamic production data, and due to high cost of data collection, this is typically deferred till after startup. Effective decision-making in this environment is critical, requiring strong risk mitigation strategies and contingency planning, facilitated by a strong culture of DQ.

Decision Quality (DQ) provides a structured framework for making informed choices. While decision hierarchy for all major decisions are carefully mapped and researched, numerous lower-level decisions often lack structure and discipline, leading to missed opportunities and unforeseen risks. Rushing to obvious solutions without exploring alternatives can in worst case derail the entire project. Organizations frequently fall into this trap, impacting both teams and decision-makers. In this presentation, Eirik will share insights from his decade of leading some of Shell’s Major Deepwater projects.

Abstract:

The premise of the discussion is that in very early opportunity identification and framing, there are unique challenges that may need to be overcome. The challenges may be particularly acute if the opportunity is new to the organization. Common traps & challenges that will be discussed include:

• Lack of firm policy statements and guidance
• Over-optimism and the role of moon shots and learning curves
• A leap to analysis and over-reliance on modeling
• Failure of imagination in shaping the opportunity

For each trap & challenge, the reaction of different types of decision makers will be discussed. Also discussed are practical ways to escape the trap and overcome the challenge presented. Ideally, this is an interactive discussion drawing on the audience’s experience in the field.

MEET OUR PRESENTERS:

Speaker Bio:

Eirik Sorgard holds an MSc in Petroleum Engineering from the University of Trondheim and brings over 30 years of global experience across both service and operator roles in upstream oil and gas. He began his career in the North Sea and Europe before joining Norsk Hydro, where he supported international projects and helped lead the company’s 2000 entry into Iran. At Shell, Eirik has held key positions including Deepwater Superintendent and Well Delivery Lead for the Perdido Development. Most recently, he has served as Business Opportunity Manager for major Gulf of America projects including PowerNap, Vito, and Sparta.

Speaker Bio:

Paul McNutt retired in 2024 after a 40-year career with ConocoPhillips, where he held leadership roles in reservoir engineering, decision analysis, project risk, and major capital projects. He led strategic initiatives at the highest levels of the company, including cost of supply implementation, M&A bids, and corporate restructurings. Paul played key roles in several National Petroleum Council studies and presented at EarthX and the 2024 Energy Infrastructure Conference. He holds a B.S. in Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering from Penn State and has served on multiple professional and community boards.

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